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Findings: when first snow usually arrives, and who gets a white Christmas

Original analysis by First Snow Dates from NOAA GHCN-Daily (1995–2024). Free to cite with a link back. Data through 2026-10-16 for this season so far.

Across 204 U.S. stations with enough snow records, typical first measurable snow ranges from Sep 19 at Mount Washington, NH to Feb 22 at Eureka, CA. White Christmas odds hit 100% at Fairbanks, AK.
Sep 19earliest typical first snow (Mount Washington, NH)
Feb 22latest typical first snow (Eureka, CA)
23stations with ≥70% white Christmas odds
9stations with first measurable snow already this season

Five things the data show

  1. Famous city medians: Chicago Nov 20, Minneapolis Nov 9, Denver Oct 20, Buffalo Nov 10.
  2. Mountains and the far north start early. Mount Washington, NH has the earliest typical first measurable snow in this set (Sep 19). See its city page.
  3. Some West Coast stations wait until midwinter. Eureka, CA typically sees first measurable snow around Feb 22. City page.
  4. White Christmas is regional, not national. 48 of 182 stations with Dec 25 snow-depth records hit ≥50% odds; 23 hit ≥70%. Top of the list: Fairbanks (100%). Full table: white Christmas odds.
  5. This season so far: 9 of 204 snow stations already recorded a first measurable snowfall through 2026-10-16. Most lower-48 cities in the sample still have none. Weekly refresh keeps that count current.

Method and station limits on the methodology page. Rankings: first snow · white Christmas.

Deeper findings: is first snow arriving later? (added Oct 21, 2026)

  1. First snow shifted later at most stations. Comparing each station's median first measurable snow (≥0.1 in) in the 1995–2009 winters with 2010–2024, the median shift across 163 stations is +2 days; 94 stations moved later, 63 earlier, 6 unchanged.
  2. Biggest moves. Later: Lynchburg, VA (+26 days), Bishop, CA (+26 days), Lubbock, TX (+25 days). Earlier: Wichita Falls, TX (-44 days), Fayetteville, AR (-31 days), Little Rock (Adams Field), AR (-26 days).
  3. Snowless winters. 7 of 163 stations had a larger share of winters with no measurable snow at all in 2010–2024 than in 1995–2009.

Method: winter = Jul 1–Jun 30; first day with SNOW ≥ 3 mm (0.1 in); winters missing >20% of days dropped; a no-snow winter counts as "after June 30" in the median; stations need ≥10 valid winters per period and ≥8 with snow. Fifteen winters per period is a short sample, so treat station-level shifts as noisy.