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When does it first snow in Tupelo, MS?

At Tupelo, the typical date of the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more in a day) is Jan 11. That is the median over the last 30 snow seasons: half of seasons saw it earlier, half later. In about 1 season in 10 it came by Dec 21, and in 1 in 10 not until Feb 18 or later. The earliest was Dec 10 (2019-20) and the latest Mar 1 (2008-09). A first snowfall of at least 1 inch in a single day typically arrives around Jan 16, and 41% of seasons had one. The first freeze of fall (a low of 32°F or colder) typically comes around Nov 5, and the last freeze of spring around Mar 24.

This season so far (2026-27, data through Oct 16, 2026): no measurable snow recorded yet; no 32°F freeze recorded yet at this station. Compare with the typical dates above. This is observed data and can lag by a day or two, and it is not a forecast.

Jan 11Median first measurable snow (0.1"+)

Jan 16Median first 1"+ snowfall

1.8"Average snowfall per season

4%Chance of white Christmas (1"+ on ground Dec 25)

Nov 5Median first fall freeze (≤32°F)

Mar 24Median last spring freeze (≤32°F)

228Median freeze-free days between

First snowfall dates at Tupelo

First day with…	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest in 30 seasons	Latest in 30 seasons	Seasons with one
0.1" of snow or more (measurable)	Jan 11	Dec 21 – Feb 18	Dec 10 (2019-20)	Mar 1 (2008-09)	73%
1" of snow or more	Jan 16	Jan 7 – Mar 8	Dec 25 (2010-11)	Mar 11 (2021-22)	41%
3" of snow or more	Feb 2	Jan 14 – Feb 20	Jan 9 (2010-11)	Feb 25 (2014-15)	9%

Based on 22 seasons (July–June, 1995-96 to 2024-25) with at least 85% complete daily snowfall records at the station. Dates are for a single day’s snowfall, so "1 inch" means one calendar day with 1" or more, not total accumulation.

Chance the first snow has already happened by a given date

Snowfall	By Nov 1	By Dec 1	By Jan 1
0.1"+ (measurable)	0%	0%	23%
1"+	0%	0%	5%

In spring, the last measurable snowfall of the season typically falls around Feb 12 (median).

White Christmas odds in Tupelo

NOAA defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Using the last 30 years of daily snow-depth records (1995–2024) at this station, Tupelo had that in 4% of years, at least 3 inches in 0%, and at least 6 inches in 0%. The average depth on Dec 25 was 0.0 inches and the deepest was 1 inches. New snow was falling (0.1" or more) on Christmas Day itself in 4% of years. Based on 24 years with a recorded depth on Dec 25.

Chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, by date

Share of the last 30 years with 1"+ snow depth within 3 days of each date. Snow cover is most likely around Jan 13 (7%). Red line: Dec 25.

First and last freeze dates in Tupelo

Threshold	Event	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest / latest	Years with one
32°F or colder (freeze)	First in fall	Nov 5	Oct 26 – Nov 24	Oct 9 (2000) / Dec 1 (2004)	100%
32°F or colder (freeze)	Last in spring	Mar 24	Mar 7 – Apr 10	–	100%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	First in fall	Nov 21	Nov 12 – Dec 2	Nov 2 (2023) / Dec 15 (1998)	97%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	Last in spring	Mar 6	Feb 14 – Mar 26	–	100%

Based on the station’s daily minimum temperature, 1995–2024. “Freeze” here means a daily low at or below the threshold, which is not the same as visible frost. Your yard can differ by several degrees and days from an airport weather station, so use these as planning odds, not guarantees.

The median stretch between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze (the freeze-free season) was about 228 days.

Nearby weather stations

Source station: Tupelo Rgnl Ap (USW00093862), elevation 340 ft. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily. Computed by First Snow Dates; how we calculate this. Historical averages only; for a forecast see weather.gov.

Planning for winter? Heat pump vs gas furnace, propane and oil: heating cost in Mississippi (on our sister site PlugVsPump, from EIA prices).