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When does it first snow in Saginaw, MI?

At Saginaw, the typical date of the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more in a day) is Nov 17. That is the median over the last 30 snow seasons: half of seasons saw it earlier, half later. In about 1 season in 10 it came by Oct 30, and in 1 in 10 not until Dec 5 or later. The earliest was Oct 12 (2006-07) and the latest Dec 18 (1998-99). A first snowfall of at least 1 inch in a single day typically arrives around Nov 25, and 100% of seasons had one. The first freeze of fall (a low of 32°F or colder) typically comes around Oct 18, and the last freeze of spring around Apr 29.

This season so far (2026-27, data through Oct 16, 2026): no measurable snow recorded yet; no 32°F freeze recorded yet at this station. Compare with the typical dates above. This is observed data and can lag by a day or two, and it is not a forecast.

Nov 17Median first measurable snow (0.1"+)

Nov 25Median first 1"+ snowfall

50.2"Average snowfall per season

48%Chance of white Christmas (1"+ on ground Dec 25)

Oct 18Median first fall freeze (≤32°F)

Apr 29Median last spring freeze (≤32°F)

169Median freeze-free days between

First snowfall dates at Saginaw

First day with…	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest in 30 seasons	Latest in 30 seasons	Seasons with one
0.1" of snow or more (measurable)	Nov 17	Oct 30 – Dec 5	Oct 12 (2006-07)	Dec 18 (1998-99)	100%
1" of snow or more	Nov 25	Nov 9 – Dec 14	Oct 26 (2016-17)	Jan 9 (2023-24)	100%
3" of snow or more	Dec 12	Nov 16 – Jan 29	Nov 11 (1995-96)	Feb 8 (2024-25)	100%

Based on 30 seasons (July–June, 1995-96 to 2024-25) with at least 85% complete daily snowfall records at the station. Dates are for a single day’s snowfall, so "1 inch" means one calendar day with 1" or more, not total accumulation.

Chance the first snow has already happened by a given date

Snowfall	By Nov 1	By Dec 1	By Jan 1
0.1"+ (measurable)	17%	83%	100%
1"+	7%	63%	97%

In spring, the last measurable snowfall of the season typically falls around Apr 11 (median).

White Christmas odds in Saginaw

NOAA defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Using the last 30 years of daily snow-depth records (1995–2024) at this station, Saginaw had that in 48% of years, at least 3 inches in 30%, and at least 6 inches in 7%. The average depth on Dec 25 was 2.0 inches and the deepest was 15 inches. New snow was falling (0.1" or more) on Christmas Day itself in 30% of years. Based on 27 years with a recorded depth on Dec 25.

Chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, by date

Share of the last 30 years with 1"+ snow depth within 3 days of each date. Snow cover is most likely around Jan 19 (78%). Red line: Dec 25.

First and last freeze dates in Saginaw

Threshold	Event	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest / latest	Years with one
32°F or colder (freeze)	First in fall	Oct 18	Oct 1 – Oct 26	Sep 22 (1999) / Oct 28 (2007)	100%
32°F or colder (freeze)	Last in spring	Apr 29	Apr 18 – May 13	–	100%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	First in fall	Nov 2	Oct 11 – Nov 18	Oct 5 (2004) / Dec 8 (2001)	100%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	Last in spring	Apr 15	Apr 1 – Apr 28	–	100%

Based on the station’s daily minimum temperature, 1995–2024. “Freeze” here means a daily low at or below the threshold, which is not the same as visible frost. Your yard can differ by several degrees and days from an airport weather station, so use these as planning odds, not guarantees.

The median stretch between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze (the freeze-free season) was about 169 days.

Nearby weather stations

Source station: Saginaw Mbs Intl Ap (USW00014845), elevation 662 ft. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily. Computed by First Snow Dates; how we calculate this. Historical averages only; for a forecast see weather.gov.

Planning for winter? Heat pump vs gas furnace, propane and oil: heating cost in Michigan (on our sister site PlugVsPump, from EIA prices).