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When does it first snow in Watertown, SD?

At Watertown, the typical date of the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more in a day) is Nov 6. That is the median over the last 30 snow seasons: half of seasons saw it earlier, half later. In about 1 season in 10 it came by Oct 10, and in 1 in 10 not until Nov 27 or later. The earliest was Sep 21 (1995-96) and the latest Dec 25 (2004-05). A first snowfall of at least 1 inch in a single day typically arrives around Nov 17, and 100% of seasons had one. The first freeze of fall (a low of 32°F or colder) typically comes around Sep 30, and the last freeze of spring around May 9.

This season so far (2026-27, data through Oct 16, 2026): no measurable snow recorded yet; first freeze (32°F or colder) Oct 16 at this station. Compare with the typical dates above. This is observed data and can lag by a day or two, and it is not a forecast.

Nov 6Median first measurable snow (0.1"+)

Nov 17Median first 1"+ snowfall

40.6"Average snowfall per season

76%Chance of white Christmas (1"+ on ground Dec 25)

Sep 30Median first fall freeze (≤32°F)

May 9Median last spring freeze (≤32°F)

147Median freeze-free days between

First snowfall dates at Watertown

First day with…	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest in 30 seasons	Latest in 30 seasons	Seasons with one
0.1" of snow or more (measurable)	Nov 6	Oct 10 – Nov 27	Sep 21 (1995-96)	Dec 25 (2004-05)	100%
1" of snow or more	Nov 17	Oct 21 – Dec 20	Oct 11 (2019-20)	Jan 11 (2004-05)	100%
3" of snow or more	Dec 5	Nov 7 – Feb 11	Oct 16 (2002-03)	Mar 4 (2013-14)	96%

Based on 25 seasons (July–June, 1995-96 to 2024-25) with at least 85% complete daily snowfall records at the station. Dates are for a single day’s snowfall, so "1 inch" means one calendar day with 1" or more, not total accumulation.

Chance the first snow has already happened by a given date

Snowfall	By Nov 1	By Dec 1	By Jan 1
0.1"+ (measurable)	44%	96%	100%
1"+	24%	76%	92%

In spring, the last measurable snowfall of the season typically falls around Apr 12 (median).

White Christmas odds in Watertown

NOAA defines a white Christmas as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Using the last 30 years of daily snow-depth records (1995–2024) at this station, Watertown had that in 76% of years, at least 3 inches in 40%, and at least 6 inches in 32%. The average depth on Dec 25 was 4.3 inches and the deepest was 16 inches. New snow was falling (0.1" or more) on Christmas Day itself in 32% of years. Based on 25 years with a recorded depth on Dec 25.

Chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground, by date

Share of the last 30 years with 1"+ snow depth within 3 days of each date. Snow cover is most likely around Jan 14 (89%). Red line: Dec 25.

First and last freeze dates in Watertown

Threshold	Event	Median date	Typical range (10th–90th pct)	Earliest / latest	Years with one
32°F or colder (freeze)	First in fall	Sep 30	Sep 18 – Oct 13	Sep 10 (2020) / Oct 16 (2021)	100%
32°F or colder (freeze)	Last in spring	May 9	Apr 24 – May 18	–	100%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	First in fall	Oct 10	Sep 29 – Oct 27	Sep 22 (1995) / Nov 1 (2021)	100%
28°F or colder (hard freeze)	Last in spring	Apr 25	Apr 15 – May 13	–	100%

Based on the station’s daily minimum temperature, 1995–2024. “Freeze” here means a daily low at or below the threshold, which is not the same as visible frost. Your yard can differ by several degrees and days from an airport weather station, so use these as planning odds, not guarantees.

The median stretch between the last spring freeze and the first fall freeze (the freeze-free season) was about 147 days.

Nearby weather stations

Source station: Watertown Rgnl Ap (USW00014946), elevation 1,741 ft. Data: NOAA NCEI GHCN-Daily. Computed by First Snow Dates; how we calculate this. Historical averages only; for a forecast see weather.gov.

Planning for winter? Heat pump vs gas furnace, propane and oil: heating cost in South Dakota (on our sister site PlugVsPump, from EIA prices).